In the development process of LED industry for more tha […]
In the development process of LED industry for more than ten years, the market structure and competition pattern of the industry are constantly changing. Up to now, under the dual factors of internal and external environment, the overall output value growth of the industry has gradually slowed down, and the technology of all links in the industry chain is mature. Intensification is intensified, competition is gradually stable, and the industry is gradually entering a mature stage. Under this background, innovation will become the key to the future growth of the industry.
The overall growth rate of the industry's output value declined significantly
The overall market size of China's LED industry reached 755.5 billion yuan (2018), of which the output value of LED upstream chip, midstream package and downstream application was 20 billion yuan, 100 billion yuan and 635.5 billion yuan respectively, up 4.3% and 14.3% respectively. 15.6%. In 2014-2018, the overall market size of the LED industry increased from 338.5 billion yuan to 755.5 billion yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate of 22.2%. Compared with the growth rate of more than 20% in previous years, the growth rate of LED downstream application in 2018 has slowed down remarkably. The main reasons for the slowdown in growth are: from the domestic environment, the Chinese economy is facing downward pressure and the consumption power of residents is decreasing. Insufficient domestic demand, while the market demand for real estate and automobiles in LED downstream applications is weak; from the international environment, the uncertainty of Sino-US trade war policy continues to affect the export of industrial products; from the perspective of the industry itself, the capacity structure of the LED industry Excess, the industry enters the down cycle, while LED lighting replacement is close to the peak.
Chip and packaging industry tend to intensive
In the chip segment, China's LED chip market has reached a high market concentration. From the perspective of capacity distribution, the top five LED chip manufacturers in China accounted for more than 70% of the market share in 2018, and industry concentration is expected in the next year or two. It will be further improved, and the top five market share will reach 80%. In the packaging process, the giant Mu Linsen is far away from other manufacturers, and behind them, Guoxing Optoelectronics, Dongshan Precision, Hongli Zhihui, Jufei Optoelectronics, Zhaochi, Ruifeng Optoelectronics and other packaging manufacturers are also eyeing. The competitive advantages in production, production efficiency, yield control, supply chain management and control will continue to grow and develop in the future, and the market space of small enterprises will be compressed, and the concentration of the industry will continue to increase.
Downstream demand is sluggish, general lighting is still a large application area
In 2018, China's LED application field is still general lighting, accounting for 47%, followed by landscape lighting, display, backlight and other fields. The general illumination penetration rate of LEDs has reached a peak, and the market growth is weak. Under the government's regulation of the PPP model, the degree of thermal lighting in landscape lighting projects has decreased, up 14.3% year-on-year; the LED display market is becoming increasingly saturated, and competition is fierce, but at small intervals. Driven by strong demand, it still achieved a year-on-year growth of 12.3%.
New technologies and new applications drive high-speed growth of the industry
The industry is gradually entering a mature stage. The enterprises in the LED industry will not be able to maintain their competitive advantages simply by price and scale. Some powerful enterprises will acquire the market by launching new applications and new products. In the future, the LED industry will accelerate its emergence. New applications and new technologies, large-scale and commercial applications of new technologies will drive the LED industry to enter high-speed growth, such as Mini/Micro LED. The industry will regard 2018 as the first year of Mini LED, which is consistently optimistic about the growth potential of Mini LED applications. At present, the major manufacturers in the industrial chain have basically completed the layout of the Mini LED and officially entered the mass production stage, which is expected to greatly promote the growth of the industry.